Western Relief Agencies in Sudan Darfur: Shocking Facts
Why the 13 Foreign Aid Agencies Were Sacked
The Sudan Government's decision to expel 13 foreign aid agencies from Darfur has provoked much controversy over this step's futility as far as the making of appropriate peaceful atmosphere in Darfur is concerned. It might backfire and provide the west with reasons to severely punish the Sudan on basis of allegations that such decision would be detrimental to the displaced people in Darfur's relief camps.
The decision was followed by the Sudanese government's proclamation of dispensing with all the other western organizations and instructing them to leave within one year.
This, again, has led to questioning both decisions' impact on the relief work in Darfur. Does Khartoum have an actual plan to replace such organizations without creating gaps that could lead to rekindling the human crisis in Darfur?
Initial Facts
Sudan's Big Gains
Intelligence, Business, and Other Activities
Why the Foreign Relief Agencies Were Expelled?
(1)International Rescue Committee (IRC)
(2)US "CARE International"
(3)French "Action Against Hunger" (ACF)
(4)French "Solidarity"
(5) American "Mercy Corp."
(6) Dutch "Doctors Without Borders"
(7) American "CHF International"
(8) British "Save The Children"
(9) " Norwegian Refugee Council" - NRC
(10) British "Oxfam"
Initial Facts
The number of the expelled foreign aid agencies is just 13. They are American, British, French, Canadian, and Dutch agencies, but this does not necessarily mean there are no other relief agencies from these countries or other countries working in Darfur.
The other foreign aid agencies working in the Sudan are 118, apart from two main international charities, 13 Islamic and Arab relief and charity agencies, as well as 55 local Sudanese ones.
There are documents and ample evidence that the expelled aid agencies were carrying out intelligence work for their countries. They also worked to maintain the problem of the displaced for purposes of profits as their staff members receive huge payments which may amount to 70% of the relief funds they obtain for the poor in Darfur. They also serve other political purposes of pressuring the Sudanese government.
In other words, the 13 western agencies expelled constitute only 8% of the working relief agencies on the ground. There are 19 American agencies, of which five only were expelled, 16 British agencies, of which four only were expelled, 10 French agencies, of which two only were expelled, in addition to one Canadian and one Dutch agencies.
Twenty two out of these 118 agencies have Zionist backgrounds and are run and funded by Zionist organizations based in New York, Washington and some European countries.
It is not true that these organizations inject huge money or aids into Darfur. They basically distribute the foods offered by the UN International Food Program without providing any supplies to Darfur's three provinces, Southern, Northern and Western.
Contrarily, these organizations have been accused of usurping most of that they received of relief aids and supplies allocated for the Darfuris for their own and for their administrators' benefit.
The International Food program donates about 60 thousand tons of food per month to Darfur. The Sudanese Red Crescent Organization distributes about 40% of this amount, whereas the foreign and local organizations distribute around 60%. This simply means that if these foreign organizations are replaced by other Arab and Islamic relief organizations, the crises and the catastrophes the west and the foreign organizations are warning of, due to the expulsion decision, will never occur
The key gain for Khartoum is when it "Sudanizes" voluntary and relief work, This is apt to eliminate the West's interference in Darfur's crisis
Sudan's Big Gains
Given that, the great challenge the government and the national and Islamic organizations are facing is filling the vacancies created by the expulsion of these foreign organizations and getting fully prepared to shoulder the responsibility of distributing the relief supplies, providing medical teams, trained personnel to operate water wells, and providing health devices and services. This way, Khartoum could prove its ability to solve its own problems irrespective of the West's agenda.
The key gain for Khartoum is when it "Sudanizes" voluntary and relief work, This is apt to eliminate the West's interference in Darfur's crisis or aggravating it through these foreign agencies that have turned into "states within the state" in Darfur.
These expelled agencies managed to some extent to encourage Darfur's dissidents, particularly the Zaghwans, to rise strongly against the government.
It is no secret the agencies in questions used to distribute donations to the Darfuris to win their satisfaction and to employ some of them to work against their country. This was through implicating them in false witnesses of mass murder and rape crimes, to which there is no tangible evidence, neither by existence of mass graves or collective women's complaints.
The missionary Christianization role of some of these organizations had been indicated by Kotbi Al-Mahdi, former political advisor to Al-Bashir.
Intelligence, Business, and Other Activities
The intelligence activities undertaken by these agencies have already been experienced in south of Khartoum, South of Sudan, where they have played the most serious role in inciting the separation of the south and providing relevant information to America.
Among the most famous of the organizations and characters that have been deeply involved in dealing with the Congress and the US Intelligence are the British Baroness Cox and her Christian Solidarity. The Baroness Cox played a part through the Christian Solidarity in supporting the Popular Movement for Sudan's Liberation (PMSL), which is currently represented in the government.
Some Sudanese evidence has emerged that these organizations cooperate with the American intelligence in support of the South against the Khartoum government as part of the scheme of separating the south and the north of Sudan. The real secret why the Europeans heavily support the American schemes of intervention into the affairs of the Sudan and Darfur lies mainly in the missionary Christianization role these relief Western agencies are said to play there.
This role is linked also to the agenda of the European and American intelligence regarding securing interests in Sudan's oil reserves. This is the fact that urged the Priest John Danforth, former US envoy to the Sudan, to say: "The cessation of the civil war in Sudan could open the door for it to become a major oil country in Africa!".
The missionary Christianization role of some of these organizations has also been indicated by Kotbi Al-Mahdi, former political advisor to the Sudanese president, who accused them of flaring up sedition in southern Sudan and the Nuba Mountains and eastern Sudan, saying that "They have sought further insurrection in Darfur."
There are documents against such agencies concerning forced displacement of the people of Darfur through temptations, pressures and deception pushing them to leave for Europe and Israel.
Why the Foreign Relief Agencies Were Expelled?
According to Sudanese official reports, which IslamOnline.net had access to, the 13 agencies were expelled due to obvious acts of intelligence and that some of them had nothing to do with relief work. The expulsion of these organizations has basically little to do with the decision of the prosecutor of The International Criminal Court arrest warrant against President Al-Bashir.
Monitoring the activities of such agencies confirmed beyond doubt that they have been for many years doing full intelligence work far from their normal humanitarian duty. However, Khartoum had been so patient and tolerant until provoked by the ICC warrant of arrest.
The Sudanese Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs has obtained files and documents as evidence kept at the office of its Sudanese Commissioner. These documents indicate the fishy roles of the involved agencies and the amount of harm they were inflicting on the situation in Darfur, in particular, and in the Sudan in general.
There are documents against such agencies concerning forced displacement of the people of Darfur through temptations, pressures and deception pushing them to leave for Europe and Israel, in an act of illegal human trade. They were also involved in destructive activities through keeping persuading dwellers of some camps not to leave them and to take arms against the government.
They also incited some armed factions to take arms inside the camps like what happened in the notorious camp of "Kalimat". Some of these agencies have also written false intelligence reports and sent them to the ICC. They were misleading reports obviously financed by some Zionist organizations.
Some of the violations and infractions by such foreign aid agencies could be detailed as follows:
When the agency was questioned about the statement, it apologized and claimed it was a personal view.
(1) International Rescue Committee (IRC)
1- The IRC had an agreement with the ICC in 2005, according to which the Committee provides the court with information, documents and witnesses as well as ensuring the witnesses' safety in coordination with the UN mission in the Sudan.
2. In December 2004, four Dutch journalists brought by the IRC were arrested as they had photos of some Janjaweed members near the camps and a fabricated film about hold-up looting operations, originally carried out by two staff members working in the humanitarian field.
The film also showed false attempts of raping of displaced women and interviews with displaced witnesses about battering and torturing operations allegedly carried out by the government authorities.
The journalists finally admitted to all that violations and a criminal prosecution was started with the witnesses' statements documented, but the case was finally dropped off after the mediation of the Dutch ambassador in the Sudan.
3- The CNN broadcast a statement made by Mrs. Roberta, an official in the organization, describing what was going on in Darfur as the most hideous genocide in the 21st century. The statement claimed that government members displaced the people in Darfur, raped women and dumped children into the fire before their parents' eyes.
When the organization was questioned about that statement, it apologized and claimed that the statement made was a personal view of Mrs. Roberta, and that she was just a staff member and did not represent the organization.
4- The Organization's president, Nicky Smith, made a statement alleging the commitment of 200 cases of murder, rape in the camp without providing a single piece of evidence. She considered that it was an indication of the deterioration of the security status and claimed that the statement was an organization document.
5- In August 2005, the organization sent letters to the then American Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, following her visit, requesting her to continue the pressure on Khartoum and the enforcement of the resolution 1591. She organized media campaigns on the Internet to collect signatures to be sent to the US President directly for the replacement of the African Union forces troops by international troops.
6- In 2006, the organization director was summoned by the Organizations Department Director General of the National Security and Intelligence Authority and was faced with these breaches and abuses. She provided a documented apology and requested opening a new page of cooperation to which she was not committed.
7- The organization has carried out some mock so-called projects in Darfur on issues¬– such as women's mental health, the rule of law, policies of protection, etc– that were just discussed in coffee meetings for women to promote their psychological comfort.
During these filmed meetings, women were pushed to talk about any abuses they were subjected to, which were meant to collect and fabricate information on their mouths.
What's really interesting is that the organization had been working without any technical agreements, and that's why it was first stopped in 2008.
8- The organization deported a number of the displaced people of Darfur to some European countries while others were sent to the ICC to bear witnesses.
9- For the organization to fulfill some of its goals, it prepared regular intelligence and information reports in addition to security surveillance reports on Darfur. It also prepared a report on the alleged forced displacement of the tribe of Al Zaghawa, and on the government stirring up of tribal disputes.
(2) US "CARE International"
1- It prepared security reports which were basically security and military records as well as accusations against the government of shelling civilians in the villages of the northern province of Darfur.
2- The organization's local director, Mr. Parker, prepared a paper that is figuring out scenarios of the replacement of the African Union troops by International ones.
The report included a security and intelligence analysis which recommended the possibility of the Sudanese government approving the advent of international forces in a dignified manner.
ACF's Cosultant, Mrs Silvy, suggested that the government practiced genocide, arson, and civilian abduction.
(3) French "Action Against Hunger" (ACF)
1- The French Action Contre la Faim (ACF) is an intelligence interface that prepared informational intelligence reports, including a letter that was discovered and carried an alleged indication that the area of Umm Khairat in Darfur was bombarded by the Janjaweed on Dec. 5, 2004.
A criminal case was filed against the organization that finally apologized for that and claimed it had conducted an investigation on the typing of that information on its official stationery, but the investigation yielded no results!.
2- Silvy, the organization's consultant, delivered a lecture, at the French International Institute of International Relations in 1999, in which she accused the Sudanese government of using the weapon of hunger against some people of Darfur in the south and in Nuba Mountains. She suggested that the government practiced genocide, arson, and civilian abduction operations.
(4) French "Solidarity"
1- In March 2007, the Radio of France cast a long interview with the organization's director in which he alleged that the Janjaweeds continued assaulting and attacking the Zaghawa tribes and that there was genocide and that the Sudanese government backed up the Arab militia and concluded that the war would not stop.
2- In 2005, the organization's distribution officer, Mr. Jill, supported the rebels by providing them with mobile recharge cards.
3- Barrels full of fuel prepared by the organization to be sent to the rebellious movements were discovered. A case was filed against the organization for thatviolations but it was finally dropped through diplomatic interventions.
The organization practiced activities that had nothing to do with humanitarian work in Kurmuk city.
(5) American "Mercy Corp."
1- This organization played a number of intelligence roles in the region of Abyei, disputed between the northern and southern Sudan, to create commotion among the people of Abyei of the Dinka tribe (African) and Missiriya tribe (Arab).
It also incited the Dinka people to create chaos in the region and beguiled them into believing they are the owners of the region and oil, and that they should fill the administrative vacuum and exploit the volatile situation.
2- The organization practiced activities that had nothing to do with humanitarian work in Kurmuk, a city in the Blue Nile Province of Sudan. It established a local radio station called the "Society Radio".
It broadcast programs that incited hatred and urged the citizens to separate from Sudan. It also initiated programs for church preaching.
(6) Dutch "Doctors Without Borders"
1- In October 2004, the organization published a report on mass killings in Darfur. The report claimed that the Sudanese government practiced genocide against civilians by using the Janjaweed pro-government militias, and that the civilians could not find a safe haven.
2- In March 2005, the organization published another report on rape in Darfur, and alleged that the rape and sexual violence were practiced by the Sudanese government and its allied militias on an ongoing basis.
The Secretary General of the United Nations used quotes form the report in his periodic report to the Security Council, citing that the organization treated 5,00 rape cases from Darfur in the UN clinics.
A criminal case was filed by the Sudanese government against the organization that was unable to prove its false allegations.
The organization's national employees, including the medical teams, denounced the report, refuted its claims, and noted that it was prepared with intentional malice. Then, the organization sought to exercise diplomatic pressure to have the case dropped.
Endeavors led by the United Nations representative, Jan Pronk, the one who submitted the report to the Secretary-General, who, in turn, sought the support of the Security Council. The Dutch Ambassador and the Ambassador of the European Union also intervened to drop the case.
Finally, the decision of the Sudanese Minister of Justice was to drop the case and give a final expulsion warning to the organization, and to depose its director, Darfur coordinator, out of the country for the untrue reports.
(7) American "CHF International"
1- The organization kept receiving a lot of women in its headquarters in the state of North Darfur and managed to convince them to lie to visiting guests and officials of international bodies about false cases of rape and sexual violence by the pro-government forces of the Janjaweed militia and to claim that these forces burned their villages and killed their men and children.
On a visit of Jan Waveland, Assistant of UN Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs, the organization denied admission of the accompanying Sudanese Minister of Humanitarian Affairs.
2– It selected a number of displaced women from camps of Abu Shouk to represent the organization in Abuja, after instructing them to tell untrue stories and reverse the situation intimidating them by rumors about rape they would face at the hands of the Janjaweed.
3– It exploited some mayors and sheiks of tribes through financial aids and mortgage servicing in return for their collecting information for the organization. They were also forced to attend meetings of the organization at which they are incited to rise against the government.
(8) British "Save The Children"
1- The organization issued, in November 2002, a statement on the security situation in the state of North Darfur claiming that the government warplanes bombed positions only 50 meters from its food distribution center, although there were no fighting in that period of time.
2- It published information, in July 2004, which alleged that more than half a million children from Sudan's Darfur had been forced to flee their villages, and that a million people were forced to leave their homes by militias supported by the government.
The organization promoted wrong information on rape cases, and it was found that it provided good sums of money to the girls to lure them into telling lie and recognizing rape.
(9) "Norwegian Refugee Council" ( NRC)
1 - The organization recruited a number of elders, youth and women within the camp of Kalema. It paid them monthly salaries of 50,000 Dinars per person, and the task of those recruits was to collect intelligence information about security, political, military and social conditions, which the organization forwarded in daily reports to its top management.
2- The organization arranged secret meetings between the displaced people and some foreign delegations visiting the camp, and provided them with false information.
3 - The organization promoted wrong information on rape cases, and it was found that it provided good sums of money to the girls to lure them into telling lie and recognizing rape.
4 - When Jan Egeland, the former Deputy Secretary General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, visited Darfur in 2005, the organization provided him with false information about "sexual harassment, rape, and racial abuse". He was summoned to the camp of Kalema in secret to hear the false information.
5- It recruited 45 girls, and gave them 45 donkeys to move inside the camp and the surrounding villages to monitor the presence of government agents.
6- Owing to the organization's reiterative infringements, the authorities of south Darfur decided to expel it in 2006 for providing false reports.
(10) British "Oxfam"
1- In November 2004, the organization issued a report indicating the crimes committed by the rebels. It accused the government of incurring the deterioration of the security status in Darfur and called for an action by the international community and for immediate intervention.
2- In the same month, the organization prepared a report on the situation in Darfur which the Sudanese Organizations High Commission refused to publish it for the false information it carried.
However, Oxfam official, Alan McDonald, disclosed some false information to Karen Smith of the CNN about genocide in Darfur. Both the organization and the CNN played a big role to create a lobby to pressurize the Sudanese government.
By Muhammad Gamal Arafa
Political Analyst – Egypt
Läs även andra bloggares åsikter om ICC, Sudan, krigsförbrytelse, genocid, MR, Palestina, ICC trovärdighet, Al-Bashir, olja, bensin, USA intresse i Sudan, Franska intresse i Sudan, Kina, Kinas intresse i Sudan, Konflikt om Sudan, Darfur, Oxfam, Sionismen, Sionister, Ockupation, Mänskliga Rättigheter, Palestina, US Arms, vapen, embargo,
torsdag 26 mars 2009
fredag 13 mars 2009
Questions Beyond the ICC Arrest Warrant of Sudan's President
Questions Beyond the ICC Arrest Warrant of Sudan's President
The ICC and Al-Bashir: Future Scenarios
With the issuance of the International Criminal Court (ICC)'s warrant for the arrest of the Sudanese President Omar Al-Beshir on March 4, 2009, at the request of the Court's Attorney General on July 14, 2008, and which was commissioned by the UN Security Council, the issue has gone out of control and Khartoum has to face the new reality of an internal, regional and international situation.
Dozens of questions and future scenarios have emerged, which, in turn, need working out dozens of scenarios and immediate and later answers at the same time.
How is the court going to implement the warrant and arrest Al-Bashir? Will it be possible to commission some western SWAT troops to carry out a flash operation to arrest him across the borders of Chad, the area that has already witnessed a coup attempt by a Darfur faction that had advanced into the country as far as the outskirts of Khartoum?
Will the UN Security Council issue a binding resolution, according to Chapter VII compelling all the states to arrest him by force, after the Council's rejection of an African-Arab proposal to freeze the trial?
Will the UN Security Council issue a binding resolution, according to Chapter VII compelling all the states to arrest him by force, after the Council's rejection of an African-Arab proposal to freeze the trial?
Domestic and Regional Scenarios
What will happen inside Sudan? Will the two wings of hawks and doves in the ruling National Congress remain united or will the hawks-- proponents of the view of sacrificing the President and pushing him to resign-- opt for the Islamic Project of protecting Sudan from the threat of external invasion and siege?
Or will they persuade the Sudanese Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Ahmad Harun, to turn himself in so as to alleviate the pressure on Al-Bashir and show Sudan's good intentions which might lead to the freezing of this sentence?
Will Darfur's rebels seize the opportunity to launch attacks against Khartoum supported by the Criminal Court's ruling as they have lately threatened?
Will the peace plans in the south be delayed or the presidential and parliamentary elections, scheduled for July 2009, be deferred? Will the south seek detachment from Sudan making use of this very tense atmosphere? Will the plans of fragmenting or dividing Sudan into four provinces be accelerated in accordance with an old known scheme?
What about the African Union and the Arab League: Could the 37 African States which signed the Rome Convention of the International Criminal Court withdraw in protest against the court's "political" ruling thereby damage the credibility of the Court? (The number of signatories of the convention is 108.)
May all these questions and their accompanying scenarios be premature and the situation in Sudan will remain as steadfast as ever, especially as 20 resolutions were previously issued by the Security Council concerning the conflict in Darfur, since 2005 but they have not been put into effect; gone with the wind, and Sudan remained steadfast.
Will the three Arab countries, members of the Court, withdraw as well or will the Arab position invariably remain mere rhetorical expression of solidarity with Sudan, particularly as there have been speculations that the Arab countries, "have sold" Al-Bashir off fearing to be linked with his destiny– as was the case with late President Saddam Hussein– which means confrontation with the new Obama administration.
In this case, they might be later forced to stand trial for opposing America and the West's desire to punish Al-Bashir?
Credibility and Future of the ICC
What about the fate and future of the Special International Criminal Courts, which have become looked upon, in spite of their growing in number (in Lebanon, Rwanda, Yugoslavia, and Cambodia), as unfair in their distribution of justice.
This is evidenced by their prosecution of the poor and overpowered countries while the crimes of the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan go unpunished.
Similarly, the Americans' ally, Israel commits endless crimes in Palestine. What about the future of the ICC, especially since it deals only with African cases– four African cases at hand– while it refuses to touch the case of Israel's war crimes in Gaza or America's in Iraq?
Repercussions
However, what is certain is that the resolution of arresting Al-Bashir will have its immediate and future repercussions on Sudan, Africa, and the world as a whole.
These repercussions may reach a stage of chaos and of escalating schemes to divide, and hence fragment, Sudan, especially if the resolution is linked to a fierce desire of the West to enforce its implementation and resort to the Security Council– and the seventh paragraph of the Charter– to be implemented by force, in spite of the African and Arab demands to apply to article 16 of the Statute for the freezing of the verdict.
Such repercussions may not undergo any escalating consequences against Sudan– in contrast with the previous scenario– except for the issuance of more resolutions by the Security Council imposing new punitive measures against Sudan.
The most ferocious sanctions against Sudan might be the imposition of an embargo and a ban on Sudanese air flights over Darfur. This means delimiting action to maintaining the court's verdict until a peace agreement about Darfur is reached, and then the embargo will be lifted.
Escalation vs. Appeasement Scenarios
Again, one could talk about the West's escalation scenario against Sudan by applying the Seventh Paragraph of the United Nations Charter. This will provide all the support it can do to Darfur rebels to raise public unrest, and to allow the intervention of the US and Western military imposition of a no-fly zone over Darfur.
On the other hand, the appeasement scenario which will sustain the court's verdict as a sword ready to strike Al–Bashir's neck with the object of compelling Sudan to compromise in some files.
But before talking about these two scenarios, we should point out that the article (89) of the Statute of the Tribunal establishes the procedures for the arrest of the accused, who has got the following verdicts:
First, The court first sends its ruling to the State of destination, Sudan, and requests its judges to put the sentence into effect. In this case, the verdict demand could be sent via the Sudanese embassy in the Hague –by fax as previous communications about the arrest of Minister Ahmed Haroun and Leader Kushayb have already taken place.
In this case Sudan would reject the request since Khartoum and the Sudanese parliament have not been signatories of the Convention establishing the court and therefore the convention is not part of the Sudanese law.
Second, The court should send the request corroborated by the indictment evidence that warrants the arrest of the person concerned to the country which has already ratified the court convention if the accused is on its land. The court should also request all the other countries to cooperate to implement the arrest.
Alternatively, Ocampo should circulate the arrest warrant of the Sudanese president to the countries which have ratified the ICC convention, namely all European countries except Russia, and all of the Southeast Asian states except China and the 37 African countries, and most of Latin America, and Canada. For them the arrest warrant is obligatory and binding.
In case this is impossible and if Sudan and any other country involved refuses to enforce the resolution, the court should automatically refer it to the UN Security Council. Although the court is not affiliated to the Council, the issue submitted should be implemented and to compel all the States to cooperate with the Tribunal, including the issuance of a resolution under Chapter VII of the Charter requiring all the Member States of the United Nations, including Sudan, to cooperate in order to execute the warrant of arrest.
Here the scenarios of escalation and appeasement are also important to the United States and Europe that have a tight grip on the Security Council.
The Appeasement Scenario
The appeasement steps could be figured out as follows:
1– Conciliation could start by delimiting the court's "politicized" resolution to one or two charges of the current three ones filed against President Al Bashir. The "Genocide" charge is to be dropped.
This will imply the existence of some kind of justice, especially as the Ocampo memorandum submitted to the court speaks about only thirty five thousand victims in Darfur, compared to 200 thousands according to the Western allegations and only 10 thousands according to Khartoum estimates.
2 - The resolution remains no more than ink on paper, meaning that it is not to be implemented, unless Al-Bashir travels to an ICC party state , and thereby creates a real problem. But this scenario may not be applicable as Al-Bashir seldom travels abroad and if he travels to some Arab countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia or Libya, it will not matter since these countries will not hand him in because they are not members of the Tribunal. Moreover, the nature of the Arab relations-makes this procedure unlikely.
3 - America and the West would not demand the enactment of Article VII of the UN Charter through a UN Security Council resolution. It should be used only as a measure of pressure.
4 - Washington will respond to the African and Arab demands, so there is a deal of freezing the resolution in exchange for a peaceful settlement in the Darfur Territory and a peace agreement that would include further Sudanese concessions, such as autonomy for the territory or apportioning it to three regions with autonomy.
The Escalation Scenario
The steps of this scenario could be figured out as follows:
1- America and Europe would seek rejection of freezing the arrest warrant of Al- Bashir.
2- They both will strive to support a new resolution to be issued by Ocampo and to be submitted to the Security Council to pass a resolution according to Chapter 7 of the Chart obliging all the other UN members including Sudan to cooperate in order to put the arrest warrant into effect.
3- The Darfur dissidents would get due support and encouragement to heighten their attacks like those of the Justice and Equality Forces last May on Um Durman with the object of pressuring Khartoum to allow them to arrest Al- Bashir and hand him in to the court.
4- Imposition of no-fly zones over Darfur like the one imposed by Americans over Iraq before the American invasion in addition to the economic, political and military embargo.
5- Employing the NATO troops, special French, European , American or other forces in special operations to penetrate the Sudanese borders or to operate outside Sudan to arrest Al-Bashir. One way is to force Al –Bashir's plane to land in an international airport so as to arrest him. The Attorney General Ocampo is authorized to use all the weapons and Devices available in the 108 UN members including the Intelligence capabilities, special forces, interior security forces, the army in addition to the UN forces to implement the resolution.
In any case, it is unexpected that the UN forces in Darfur (10 thousand troops) will be employed to arrest Al-Bashir, though they are the primary body responsible for such action.
This may lead to the attack of the Sudanese army on the UN troops and kicking them out of Sudan. This scenario has been figured out by the leaders of these troops which made them try to avoid getting involved and refrained from cooperating with the ICC concerning the special information related with Al-Bashir's prosecution.
Destiny of Elections and Peace With the South
There is still great fear of the impact of this verdict on Sudan internally and its repercussions on the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for next July. These will have close relationship with the future of peace and the Naivasha Peace Accord between the North and the south.
In case the verdict should affect the internal status quo, especially during the skirmishes between the Northerners and the Southerners, and the demand made by some southern leaders that Al-Bashir must hand himself in to the ICC, and in the light of the incompletion of the population census which may deter the promulgation of the election laws which are expected thereby to be deferred to December 2009 at most, given that that the peace accord between the north and the south which stipulates running the election in July, such deferment to next December will entail a constitution adaptation.
In case the elections should be run as scheduled and Al-Bashir should participate, it is expected that he will have a sliding victory owing to the popularity he has gained by the ICC verdict.
His victory will represent a new legitimacy bestowed on him by the voters. However, in case the elections are postponed or could not be run, this may aggravate the disputes with the southerners which may as well accelerate the unilateral detachment of the south without waiting till the year 2011 when the final destiny determination referendum should be administered.
This, in turn, might start a civil war between the south and the north apart from the west's wars for destiny determination. Sudan will then experience turmoil and instability which will re-thrust it into the status which existed before the Rescue Revolution of 1989.
This means that Sudan may relapse into its early Islamic roots which were characterized by rigidity and extremism. "Slah Qoush", Director of the Sudanese Intelligence, has openly warned against such relapse. Similarly, Othman Mohammed Taha, the Sudanese Vice President has alluded to the same warning when he said, " It will be a long battle".
Muhammad Gamal Arafa
political analyst in IOL
Läs även andra bloggares åsikter om ICC Arrest Warrant of Sudan's President, ICC, Sudan, krigsförbrytelse, genocid, MR, Palestina, ICC trovärdighet, Al-Bashir, olja, bensin, USA intresse i Sudan, Franska intresse i Sudan, Kina, Kinas intresse i Sudan, Konflikt om Sudan
The ICC and Al-Bashir: Future Scenarios
With the issuance of the International Criminal Court (ICC)'s warrant for the arrest of the Sudanese President Omar Al-Beshir on March 4, 2009, at the request of the Court's Attorney General on July 14, 2008, and which was commissioned by the UN Security Council, the issue has gone out of control and Khartoum has to face the new reality of an internal, regional and international situation.
Dozens of questions and future scenarios have emerged, which, in turn, need working out dozens of scenarios and immediate and later answers at the same time.
How is the court going to implement the warrant and arrest Al-Bashir? Will it be possible to commission some western SWAT troops to carry out a flash operation to arrest him across the borders of Chad, the area that has already witnessed a coup attempt by a Darfur faction that had advanced into the country as far as the outskirts of Khartoum?
Will the UN Security Council issue a binding resolution, according to Chapter VII compelling all the states to arrest him by force, after the Council's rejection of an African-Arab proposal to freeze the trial?
Will the UN Security Council issue a binding resolution, according to Chapter VII compelling all the states to arrest him by force, after the Council's rejection of an African-Arab proposal to freeze the trial?
Domestic and Regional Scenarios
What will happen inside Sudan? Will the two wings of hawks and doves in the ruling National Congress remain united or will the hawks-- proponents of the view of sacrificing the President and pushing him to resign-- opt for the Islamic Project of protecting Sudan from the threat of external invasion and siege?
Or will they persuade the Sudanese Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Ahmad Harun, to turn himself in so as to alleviate the pressure on Al-Bashir and show Sudan's good intentions which might lead to the freezing of this sentence?
Will Darfur's rebels seize the opportunity to launch attacks against Khartoum supported by the Criminal Court's ruling as they have lately threatened?
Will the peace plans in the south be delayed or the presidential and parliamentary elections, scheduled for July 2009, be deferred? Will the south seek detachment from Sudan making use of this very tense atmosphere? Will the plans of fragmenting or dividing Sudan into four provinces be accelerated in accordance with an old known scheme?
What about the African Union and the Arab League: Could the 37 African States which signed the Rome Convention of the International Criminal Court withdraw in protest against the court's "political" ruling thereby damage the credibility of the Court? (The number of signatories of the convention is 108.)
May all these questions and their accompanying scenarios be premature and the situation in Sudan will remain as steadfast as ever, especially as 20 resolutions were previously issued by the Security Council concerning the conflict in Darfur, since 2005 but they have not been put into effect; gone with the wind, and Sudan remained steadfast.
Will the three Arab countries, members of the Court, withdraw as well or will the Arab position invariably remain mere rhetorical expression of solidarity with Sudan, particularly as there have been speculations that the Arab countries, "have sold" Al-Bashir off fearing to be linked with his destiny– as was the case with late President Saddam Hussein– which means confrontation with the new Obama administration.
In this case, they might be later forced to stand trial for opposing America and the West's desire to punish Al-Bashir?
Credibility and Future of the ICC
What about the fate and future of the Special International Criminal Courts, which have become looked upon, in spite of their growing in number (in Lebanon, Rwanda, Yugoslavia, and Cambodia), as unfair in their distribution of justice.
This is evidenced by their prosecution of the poor and overpowered countries while the crimes of the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan go unpunished.
Similarly, the Americans' ally, Israel commits endless crimes in Palestine. What about the future of the ICC, especially since it deals only with African cases– four African cases at hand– while it refuses to touch the case of Israel's war crimes in Gaza or America's in Iraq?
Repercussions
However, what is certain is that the resolution of arresting Al-Bashir will have its immediate and future repercussions on Sudan, Africa, and the world as a whole.
These repercussions may reach a stage of chaos and of escalating schemes to divide, and hence fragment, Sudan, especially if the resolution is linked to a fierce desire of the West to enforce its implementation and resort to the Security Council– and the seventh paragraph of the Charter– to be implemented by force, in spite of the African and Arab demands to apply to article 16 of the Statute for the freezing of the verdict.
Such repercussions may not undergo any escalating consequences against Sudan– in contrast with the previous scenario– except for the issuance of more resolutions by the Security Council imposing new punitive measures against Sudan.
The most ferocious sanctions against Sudan might be the imposition of an embargo and a ban on Sudanese air flights over Darfur. This means delimiting action to maintaining the court's verdict until a peace agreement about Darfur is reached, and then the embargo will be lifted.
Escalation vs. Appeasement Scenarios
Again, one could talk about the West's escalation scenario against Sudan by applying the Seventh Paragraph of the United Nations Charter. This will provide all the support it can do to Darfur rebels to raise public unrest, and to allow the intervention of the US and Western military imposition of a no-fly zone over Darfur.
On the other hand, the appeasement scenario which will sustain the court's verdict as a sword ready to strike Al–Bashir's neck with the object of compelling Sudan to compromise in some files.
But before talking about these two scenarios, we should point out that the article (89) of the Statute of the Tribunal establishes the procedures for the arrest of the accused, who has got the following verdicts:
First, The court first sends its ruling to the State of destination, Sudan, and requests its judges to put the sentence into effect. In this case, the verdict demand could be sent via the Sudanese embassy in the Hague –by fax as previous communications about the arrest of Minister Ahmed Haroun and Leader Kushayb have already taken place.
In this case Sudan would reject the request since Khartoum and the Sudanese parliament have not been signatories of the Convention establishing the court and therefore the convention is not part of the Sudanese law.
Second, The court should send the request corroborated by the indictment evidence that warrants the arrest of the person concerned to the country which has already ratified the court convention if the accused is on its land. The court should also request all the other countries to cooperate to implement the arrest.
Alternatively, Ocampo should circulate the arrest warrant of the Sudanese president to the countries which have ratified the ICC convention, namely all European countries except Russia, and all of the Southeast Asian states except China and the 37 African countries, and most of Latin America, and Canada. For them the arrest warrant is obligatory and binding.
In case this is impossible and if Sudan and any other country involved refuses to enforce the resolution, the court should automatically refer it to the UN Security Council. Although the court is not affiliated to the Council, the issue submitted should be implemented and to compel all the States to cooperate with the Tribunal, including the issuance of a resolution under Chapter VII of the Charter requiring all the Member States of the United Nations, including Sudan, to cooperate in order to execute the warrant of arrest.
Here the scenarios of escalation and appeasement are also important to the United States and Europe that have a tight grip on the Security Council.
The Appeasement Scenario
The appeasement steps could be figured out as follows:
1– Conciliation could start by delimiting the court's "politicized" resolution to one or two charges of the current three ones filed against President Al Bashir. The "Genocide" charge is to be dropped.
This will imply the existence of some kind of justice, especially as the Ocampo memorandum submitted to the court speaks about only thirty five thousand victims in Darfur, compared to 200 thousands according to the Western allegations and only 10 thousands according to Khartoum estimates.
2 - The resolution remains no more than ink on paper, meaning that it is not to be implemented, unless Al-Bashir travels to an ICC party state , and thereby creates a real problem. But this scenario may not be applicable as Al-Bashir seldom travels abroad and if he travels to some Arab countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia or Libya, it will not matter since these countries will not hand him in because they are not members of the Tribunal. Moreover, the nature of the Arab relations-makes this procedure unlikely.
3 - America and the West would not demand the enactment of Article VII of the UN Charter through a UN Security Council resolution. It should be used only as a measure of pressure.
4 - Washington will respond to the African and Arab demands, so there is a deal of freezing the resolution in exchange for a peaceful settlement in the Darfur Territory and a peace agreement that would include further Sudanese concessions, such as autonomy for the territory or apportioning it to three regions with autonomy.
The Escalation Scenario
The steps of this scenario could be figured out as follows:
1- America and Europe would seek rejection of freezing the arrest warrant of Al- Bashir.
2- They both will strive to support a new resolution to be issued by Ocampo and to be submitted to the Security Council to pass a resolution according to Chapter 7 of the Chart obliging all the other UN members including Sudan to cooperate in order to put the arrest warrant into effect.
3- The Darfur dissidents would get due support and encouragement to heighten their attacks like those of the Justice and Equality Forces last May on Um Durman with the object of pressuring Khartoum to allow them to arrest Al- Bashir and hand him in to the court.
4- Imposition of no-fly zones over Darfur like the one imposed by Americans over Iraq before the American invasion in addition to the economic, political and military embargo.
5- Employing the NATO troops, special French, European , American or other forces in special operations to penetrate the Sudanese borders or to operate outside Sudan to arrest Al-Bashir. One way is to force Al –Bashir's plane to land in an international airport so as to arrest him. The Attorney General Ocampo is authorized to use all the weapons and Devices available in the 108 UN members including the Intelligence capabilities, special forces, interior security forces, the army in addition to the UN forces to implement the resolution.
In any case, it is unexpected that the UN forces in Darfur (10 thousand troops) will be employed to arrest Al-Bashir, though they are the primary body responsible for such action.
This may lead to the attack of the Sudanese army on the UN troops and kicking them out of Sudan. This scenario has been figured out by the leaders of these troops which made them try to avoid getting involved and refrained from cooperating with the ICC concerning the special information related with Al-Bashir's prosecution.
Destiny of Elections and Peace With the South
There is still great fear of the impact of this verdict on Sudan internally and its repercussions on the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for next July. These will have close relationship with the future of peace and the Naivasha Peace Accord between the North and the south.
In case the verdict should affect the internal status quo, especially during the skirmishes between the Northerners and the Southerners, and the demand made by some southern leaders that Al-Bashir must hand himself in to the ICC, and in the light of the incompletion of the population census which may deter the promulgation of the election laws which are expected thereby to be deferred to December 2009 at most, given that that the peace accord between the north and the south which stipulates running the election in July, such deferment to next December will entail a constitution adaptation.
In case the elections should be run as scheduled and Al-Bashir should participate, it is expected that he will have a sliding victory owing to the popularity he has gained by the ICC verdict.
His victory will represent a new legitimacy bestowed on him by the voters. However, in case the elections are postponed or could not be run, this may aggravate the disputes with the southerners which may as well accelerate the unilateral detachment of the south without waiting till the year 2011 when the final destiny determination referendum should be administered.
This, in turn, might start a civil war between the south and the north apart from the west's wars for destiny determination. Sudan will then experience turmoil and instability which will re-thrust it into the status which existed before the Rescue Revolution of 1989.
This means that Sudan may relapse into its early Islamic roots which were characterized by rigidity and extremism. "Slah Qoush", Director of the Sudanese Intelligence, has openly warned against such relapse. Similarly, Othman Mohammed Taha, the Sudanese Vice President has alluded to the same warning when he said, " It will be a long battle".
Muhammad Gamal Arafa
political analyst in IOL
Läs även andra bloggares åsikter om ICC Arrest Warrant of Sudan's President, ICC, Sudan, krigsförbrytelse, genocid, MR, Palestina, ICC trovärdighet, Al-Bashir, olja, bensin, USA intresse i Sudan, Franska intresse i Sudan, Kina, Kinas intresse i Sudan, Konflikt om Sudan
onsdag 11 mars 2009
World in "Great Recession" :IMF
World in "Great Recession" :IMF
"The IMF expects global growth to slow below zero this year, the worst performance in most of our lifetimes," Strauss-Kahn said. (Reuters)
DAR-E-SALAAM — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stressed on Tuesday, March 10, that the world was in the grip of the "great recession," warning that Africans are at a particular risk from the global meltdown.
"The IMF expects global growth to slow below zero this year, the worst performance in most of our lifetimes," IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn told African finance attending a conference discussing how Africa should respond to the crisis.
"When we release our next package of forecasts at the spring session, that is to say in April, everything leads us to believe that it will indeed reveal a negative global growth for the first time in 60 years."
The IMF chief described the global financial crisis as "the great recession," excluding any chance of a global recovery before 2010.
US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that the world was grappling with "the worst financial crisis" since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
The World Bank, the IMF's sister institution, said on Monday, March 9, it expects the world economy to shrink in 2009.
Stock markets worldwide hit their lowest levels in decades on Tuesday.
Japan's Nikkei stock index closed down 0.44 percent after another sell-off on Wall Street, hitting the lowest level since October 1982 for a second straight day.
In the US, where the crisis first erupted, stocks tumbled in choppy trade to 12-year lows overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.21 percent.
A financial firestorm swept the US and the world in September after the demise of Lehman Brothers, one of the US's Wall Street giants.
Since this, the crisis has knocked down many major companies worldwide, causing mounting job losses, falling household wealth and forcing consumers to hold back on spending.
Africa at Risk
The IMF, world's leading financial watchdog, warned that Africa would be particularly hard-hit by the global recession.
"Even though the crisis has been slow in reaching Africa's shores, we all know that it's coming and its impact will be severe," said Strauss-Kahn.
The IMF stressed that tumbling trade, declining remittances and dwindling foreign investments were piling pressure on Africa.
It predicts that growth in sub-Saharan Africa will slow to about 3 percent in 2009, half the growth rate it forecast last year.
"Even this could be too optimistic if the crisis deepens," warned Strauss-Kahn.
"Africa is now on the front line," agreed former UN chief Kofi Annan, currently chair of the Africa Progress Panel.
Many of the 300 participants in the conference pointed out that single private firms in the Western world had received bail-outs larger than the financial support for the whole of Africa.
"At a time when the international community is finding hundreds of billions of dollars for crisis resolution, I cannot accept that we will not be able to find hundreds of millions for low-income countries," said Strauss-Kahn.
"We must ensure that the voice of the poor is heard. We must ensure that Africa is not left out."
The IMF chief fears that the threat to Africa will not be only economic, with millions of Africans at the risk of being pushed back into poverty and conflict.
"This is not only about protecting economic growth or household incomes, it is also about containing the threat of civil unrest, perhaps even a war. It is about people and their futures."
IOL
Läs även andra bloggares åsikter om Recession, IMF, Africa, crisis, global crisis, konjunktursvacka, låg konjunktur, banker, skulder, lån, aktier, varsel, bilindustri, poor, aid, fattiga länder, subventionera, subvention, ekonomisk kris
"The IMF expects global growth to slow below zero this year, the worst performance in most of our lifetimes," Strauss-Kahn said. (Reuters)
DAR-E-SALAAM — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stressed on Tuesday, March 10, that the world was in the grip of the "great recession," warning that Africans are at a particular risk from the global meltdown.
"The IMF expects global growth to slow below zero this year, the worst performance in most of our lifetimes," IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn told African finance attending a conference discussing how Africa should respond to the crisis.
"When we release our next package of forecasts at the spring session, that is to say in April, everything leads us to believe that it will indeed reveal a negative global growth for the first time in 60 years."
The IMF chief described the global financial crisis as "the great recession," excluding any chance of a global recovery before 2010.
US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that the world was grappling with "the worst financial crisis" since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
The World Bank, the IMF's sister institution, said on Monday, March 9, it expects the world economy to shrink in 2009.
Stock markets worldwide hit their lowest levels in decades on Tuesday.
Japan's Nikkei stock index closed down 0.44 percent after another sell-off on Wall Street, hitting the lowest level since October 1982 for a second straight day.
In the US, where the crisis first erupted, stocks tumbled in choppy trade to 12-year lows overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.21 percent.
A financial firestorm swept the US and the world in September after the demise of Lehman Brothers, one of the US's Wall Street giants.
Since this, the crisis has knocked down many major companies worldwide, causing mounting job losses, falling household wealth and forcing consumers to hold back on spending.
Africa at Risk
The IMF, world's leading financial watchdog, warned that Africa would be particularly hard-hit by the global recession.
"Even though the crisis has been slow in reaching Africa's shores, we all know that it's coming and its impact will be severe," said Strauss-Kahn.
The IMF stressed that tumbling trade, declining remittances and dwindling foreign investments were piling pressure on Africa.
It predicts that growth in sub-Saharan Africa will slow to about 3 percent in 2009, half the growth rate it forecast last year.
"Even this could be too optimistic if the crisis deepens," warned Strauss-Kahn.
"Africa is now on the front line," agreed former UN chief Kofi Annan, currently chair of the Africa Progress Panel.
Many of the 300 participants in the conference pointed out that single private firms in the Western world had received bail-outs larger than the financial support for the whole of Africa.
"At a time when the international community is finding hundreds of billions of dollars for crisis resolution, I cannot accept that we will not be able to find hundreds of millions for low-income countries," said Strauss-Kahn.
"We must ensure that the voice of the poor is heard. We must ensure that Africa is not left out."
The IMF chief fears that the threat to Africa will not be only economic, with millions of Africans at the risk of being pushed back into poverty and conflict.
"This is not only about protecting economic growth or household incomes, it is also about containing the threat of civil unrest, perhaps even a war. It is about people and their futures."
IOL
Läs även andra bloggares åsikter om Recession, IMF, Africa, crisis, global crisis, konjunktursvacka, låg konjunktur, banker, skulder, lån, aktier, varsel, bilindustri, poor, aid, fattiga länder, subventionera, subvention, ekonomisk kris
måndag 2 mars 2009
AFGHANISTAN: Respiratory diseases kill 2-4 people daily
AFGHANISTAN: Respiratory diseases kill 2-4 people daily - Health Ministry
KABUL, 2 March 2009 (IRIN) - As many as 3,000 people seek treatment for cold-related respiratory diseases in Afghanistan every day, and of these, 2-4 die because of lack of access to decent healthcare, the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) has said.
"Every winter we see a marked increase in respiratory diseases," Abdullah Fahim, an MoPH spokesman, told IRIN in Kabul.
Pneumonia, asthma and other breathing problems peak among vulnerable people, particularly children, in sub-zero winter temperatures.
The situation is aggravated by high levels of pollution in the main cities [http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=82639
About nine million of the country's estimated 27 million people are food insecure, making them prone to seasonal and contagious diseases, health specialists say.
Over 230,000 people are also living in wretched conditions as internally displaced persons (IDPs) in tents, mud huts and dilapidated buildings; they generally lack access to heating, clothing and health services.
Afghanistan has one of the highest infant mortality rates in the world, with pneumonia and respiratory infections killing thousands of children every year, according to health workers.
Mobile health teams
In October 2008 the MoPH reported the establishment of 129 mobile health teams tasked with assisting needy communities during winter when snow often blocks access to local health centres.
The teams have helped prevent a major outbreak of winter diseases so far this year, but they are hampered by snow and transport difficulties, MoPH's Fahim said.
Because many roads in rural areas are rough and become impassable in winter, mobile health workers also use animals or trek to villages on foot to deliver life-saving health services.
"We're facing access problems in some mountainous and rugged regions in Paktika, Nooristan, Daykundi, Badghis and Badakhshan provinces," Fahim said.
In the volatile south and east health workers' access to tens of thousands of people has been impeded by insurgency-related violence and deliberate attacks on aid workers [http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=83207], MoPH officials said.
The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) has said that because immunisation coverage is still very low in Afghanistan, preventable diseases kill thousands of children annually, with respiratory infections being among the leading causes of childhood deaths. http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/afghanistan_background.html.
Läs även andra bloggares åsikter om terrorism, rättigheter, USA, afghnistan, health afghnistan, hälsa i afghnistan
KABUL, 2 March 2009 (IRIN) - As many as 3,000 people seek treatment for cold-related respiratory diseases in Afghanistan every day, and of these, 2-4 die because of lack of access to decent healthcare, the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) has said.
"Every winter we see a marked increase in respiratory diseases," Abdullah Fahim, an MoPH spokesman, told IRIN in Kabul.
Pneumonia, asthma and other breathing problems peak among vulnerable people, particularly children, in sub-zero winter temperatures.
The situation is aggravated by high levels of pollution in the main cities [http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=82639
About nine million of the country's estimated 27 million people are food insecure, making them prone to seasonal and contagious diseases, health specialists say.
Over 230,000 people are also living in wretched conditions as internally displaced persons (IDPs) in tents, mud huts and dilapidated buildings; they generally lack access to heating, clothing and health services.
Afghanistan has one of the highest infant mortality rates in the world, with pneumonia and respiratory infections killing thousands of children every year, according to health workers.
Mobile health teams
In October 2008 the MoPH reported the establishment of 129 mobile health teams tasked with assisting needy communities during winter when snow often blocks access to local health centres.
The teams have helped prevent a major outbreak of winter diseases so far this year, but they are hampered by snow and transport difficulties, MoPH's Fahim said.
Because many roads in rural areas are rough and become impassable in winter, mobile health workers also use animals or trek to villages on foot to deliver life-saving health services.
"We're facing access problems in some mountainous and rugged regions in Paktika, Nooristan, Daykundi, Badghis and Badakhshan provinces," Fahim said.
In the volatile south and east health workers' access to tens of thousands of people has been impeded by insurgency-related violence and deliberate attacks on aid workers [http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=83207], MoPH officials said.
The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) has said that because immunisation coverage is still very low in Afghanistan, preventable diseases kill thousands of children annually, with respiratory infections being among the leading causes of childhood deaths. http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/afghanistan_background.html.
Läs även andra bloggares åsikter om terrorism, rättigheter, USA, afghnistan, health afghnistan, hälsa i afghnistan
Prenumerera på:
Inlägg (Atom)