Taliban Pakistan in Hot Waters

Taliban Pakistan in Hot Waters
By Aamir Latif, IOL Correspondent

"If his [Baitullah Mehsud] death is confirmed it will certainly effect the Taliban movement in the tribal areas initially," Yousafzai believes.ISLAMABAD — Security and defense analysts believe that the reported death of Baitullah Mehsud will affect the militancy in Pakistan's restive tribal areas on the short term and could cause a split within the local Taliban ranks.
"If his death is confirmed it will certainly effect the Taliban movement in the tribal areas initially," Rahimullah Yousafzai, a Peshawar based security analyst, told IslamOnline.net.
Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), reportedly died on Tuesday of renal failure.
"Taliban will need sometime to find out such a high-profile commander like Baitullah Mehsud because he was the founder of TTP and definitely fighters have some kind of attachment to the founder."
A letter received Thursday by a Peshawar-based journalist claimed 34-year-old Mehsud was in good health.
Pakistan Taliban Leader Reportedly Dead
The letter did not carry a spokesman name and many observers here doubt its credibility and say Mehsud could have called journalists to tell them that he is alive.
Mehsud had previously met journalists at unidentified places in tribal areas.
Experts think Taliban will announce his death once they find his successor.
"When I say it will affect in the short term that means that Taliban had been used to his towering personality, which was actually exaggerated by intelligence agencies and the media," says Yousafzai.
"No doubt he was or he is an important and experienced commander but to declare him one of the most dangerous and influential persons in the world is nothing but exaggeration."
Baitullah Mehsud, a ghostly top militant, was virtually the uncrowned king of Pakistan's restive tribal belt.
Blamed by the US for the assassination of former premier Benazir Bhutto last year, he was the most wanted man by Pakistani and US intelligence agencies.
Baitullah Mehsud, who was once described by Newsweek as more dangerous than Osama Bin Laden himself, was recently named in Time magazine's 100 most influential people in the world.
Temporary

Ghosi believes the militancy problem in Pakistan's restive border area will remain "until and unless the root cause of the problem is addressed."
Some experts believe his death, if confirmed, could cause the break up of Taliban.
"His death may affect Taliban in a way whereby it may split on the issue of his successor," says Yousafzai.
"There are many Taliban groups under the umbrella of The TTP and each of these groups may won't its leader to be Baitullah Mehsud successor."
Wali-ur-Rehman is believed to stand a better chance of succeeding Baitullah Mehsud because he hails from the same powerful tribe.
Mehsud is the biggest tribe in South Waziristan with 60 percent of the 700,000 population while rival Wazir makes up 35 percent.
Maulvi Faqeer Mohammad, Baitullah Mehsud's deputy, would be a less favorite because he is not a Mehsud.
However, experts believe that whatever impact Baitullah Mehsud's death would have on Taliban, it would be short-lived.
"It will not be a long-lasting effect because the situation in the tribal areas has reached a point where personalities do not count much," says Yousafzai.
Sabihuddin Ghosi, a security and political analyst, agrees.
"His death could be a temporary shock for Taliban but not more than that.
"However I don't see this as a long-term problem for Taliban, especially regarding their operational capabilities. Once they regroup and fight his successor they will again appear as a threat."
The security expert insists that the militancy problem in Pakistan's restive border area will continue.
"The problem will remain until and unless the root cause of the problem is addressed.
"The two sides, specially the government, must understand that guns can't resolve the disputes. They have to come to the table whether before bloodshed or after that," says Ghosi.
"If the government wants to close the chapter of people like Baitullah Mehsud for ever then it has to respect the tribal tradition and give self governance to them otherwise the people will continue to be killed and people like Baitullah Mehsud will continue to emerge."